Back on Wednesday morning, I showed that Xander Bogaerts and Miguel Cabrera were hitting at paces that would cause Bogaerts to (most likely) surpass Cabrera for the AL batting title. Though I didn’t mention it at the time, these projections also showed that he’d reach 200 hits even if he sat out a couple of games, and a few more than that if he played all the remaining games. After a pair of low-hit games knocked Bogaerts off that pace, his 3-for-4 performance last night has put him right back on it.

In trying to project future totals using “the pace at which a player is producing right now”, how many games do you use to determine what that pace is? The last 5? The last 10? 20?

I circumvent that question by using all of them … I calculate his pace of production over his last 5, 6, 7, 8, etc. games, then use that pace applied over the remaining number of games to be played to see what final numbers he’s headed for. This gives a big collection of possible final numbers; you then choose one in the middle.

On Wednesday I did that for Cabrera and Bogaerts using their paces of production as established by their last 8, 9, 10, etc. up to their last 20 games. That gave 13 paces of production for each player. I then applied these to their remaining games assuming they’d not sit out any games, and then again assuming they’d each sit out two games. I got these results:

If playing all remaining games | ||
---|---|---|

Bogaerts | Cabrera | |

Low | 0.327 | 0.324 |

Median | 0.329 | 0.326 |

High | 0.332 | 0.331 |

If sitting out two games | ||
---|---|---|

Bogaerts | Cabrera | |

Low | 0.327 | 0.326 |

Median | 0.329 | 0.328 |

High | 0.331 | 0.332 |

In all but one of these 26 projections, Bogaerts would end up with at least 200 hits.

I just updated these numbers, and now they look like this:

If playing all remaining games | ||
---|---|---|

Bogaerts | Cabrera | |

Low | 0.327 | 0.325 |

Median | 0.329 | 0.326 |

High | 0.330 | 0.332 |

If sitting out two games | ||
---|---|---|

Bogaerts | Cabrera | |

Low | 0.327 | 0.327 |

Median | 0.328 | 0.328 |

High | 0.329 | 0.332 |

Here are Bogaerts’ projected numbers of hits:

Bogaerts projected 2015 hits | ||
---|---|---|

# of recent games used | If playing all games | If sitting two games |

20 | 204.0 | 200.8 |

19 | 203.3 | 200.2 |

18 | 203.0 | 200.0 |

17 | 203.3 | 200.2 |

16 | 203.6 | 200.5 |

15 | 204.0 | 200.8 |

14 | 205.1 | 201.7 |

13 | 204.9 | 201.5 |

12 | 203.8 | 200.7 |

11 | 204.4 | 201.1 |

10 | 204.0 | 200.8 |

9 | 204.7 | 201.3 |

8 | 204.3 | 201.0 |

Longer term projections (based on his last 40 or more games) almost all have him finishing with 200 hits exactly if he sits out 2 games, 203 hits if he plays all remaining games, and a .327 average.

If they play it out, and stay on pace, Bogaerts probably will win the batting title and will get to 200 hits.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com for the gamelog data I used for this article.