Obviously, a World Series Game 1 win would have been better for the Cubs. But when you think about the most likely scenarios in which the Cubs win the World Series, the two most likely both have the Cubs losing Game 1.

One scenario is the Cubs win all the games in which Corey Kluber doesn’t pitch, taking the Series in 6 games. But if you don’t have a midgame lead in Game 6, you’ll be facing a rested Andrew Miller in that game, not what you want.

The other scenario is the Cubs take one of the first two in Cleveland, and win all three home games. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is losing Game 1 (because Kluber is pitching) and winning Game 2.

So what sets you up best for winning Game 2? Making sure Andrew Miller throws a lot of pitches in Game 1. And hope that Game 2 isn’t rescheduled due to rain.

The Cubs definitely accomplished the first part of that. Miller threw 46 pitches in Game 1, more than he’s thrown all season. Plus, they mounted a real scoring threat against him. If they see him in Game 2, they won’t see much of him, and they won’t be intimidated by him. And he may not be as effective, either. The Cubs will be ready to succeed against Miller in Game 2, if they have to.

As for winning Game 4 against Kluber, it will help that they’re at home in Chicago. It will also help that they’d seen a lot of pitches from Kluber just four days before, so they have a better idea what to expect from him. There was some good contact against him in Game 1. They just need a little bit more good contact to start putting up runs.

For the Cubs’ sake, let’s just hope the rain doesn’t cancel Game 2.

In my latest post on OverTheMonster, I explain why I think the Red Sox had a crisis of belief this season, and how two words from David Ortiz helped to cure it.

Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t earned a win in his last 9 starts, going back to mid-July. In that time, he’s had a good share of tough-luck losses and no decisions, none worse than September 4 against Oakland. Spinning a no-hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings, he finished having thrown 8 innings of shutout ball, the best start of his career. However, the Red Sox gave him exactly zero runs of support that day. This, the day after the Red Sox had scored 11 runs against the same team, and 16 the day before that. They would go on to lose 1-0.

And yet, it was not all for naught, because Rodriguez and the rest of the Red Sox starters strung together one excellent start after another to start September. By going deep into games, fewer innings were required of the relievers. By limiting runs allowed to at most 2 through the first seven games of September, the starters usually left the game with a big lead, allowing the Red Sox to pick and choose which relievers to use based on who was most rested, or who needed confidence-boosting. Some additional rest was already expected for the bullpen once rosters expanded September 1, but combined with the help from the starters, it was a perfect recipe for turning an overworked bullpen into a very well rested one.

The dividends from this rest were reaped Sunday night, as the bullpen was called on to take over at the start of the 4th inning of a close game against a potent offense and division rival in a tight pennant race. And they came through.

Let’s look at the numbers to see if they back all this up.

First, here are the performances of the Red Sox starters through the first 8 games of September:

First 8 starts of September 2016
Date	Starting pitcher	IP	H	R	ER
9/2/2016	David Price	7	4	2	2
9/3/2016	Rick Porcello	7	4	2	2
9/4/2016	Eduardo Rodriguez	8	1	0	0
9/5/2016	Drew Pomeranz	5.2	6	2	2
9/6/2016	Clay Buchholz	6.2	8	1	1
9/7/2016	David Price	7	6	2	2
9/9/2016	Rick Porcello	7	6	2	2
9/10/2016	Eduardo Rodriguez	6	4	3	2

Indeed, on the whole they went quite deep into games, and allowed very few runs.  This allowed the Red Sox to use the bullpen as a whole much less:

Per game usage averages
	IP (starters)	IP (relievers)	Pitches (rel.)
August	6.30	2.49	44.3
Sept (thru 9/10)	6.79	1.83	28.6

The bullpen as a whole threw about 1/3 fewer pitches per game through the first part of September versus their August average.  That’s a big reduction in workload.  Factor in the expanded rosters, allowing three additional relievers to be used in early September (Koji Uehara, Joe Kelly, and Robby Scott), and the usage per reliever went down.  Here are the number of appearances made per team game played in the month for each reliever.  Only pitchers making relief appearances in both months are included.

Appearances per team game though Sept 10
	Aug App/G	Sep App/G
Brad Ziegler	0.367	0.250
Craig Kimbrel	0.367	0.250
Fernando Abad	0.400	0.250
Heath Hembree	0.100	0.125
Junichi Tazawa	0.333	0.125
Matt Barnes	0.433	0.250
Robbie Ross	0.400	0.125

Except for Heath Hembree, who hadn’t been used much in August, the frequecy with which each reliever was called upon dropped by a third or more, for everybody.  Rest for the weary!

Better yet, thanks to improved performances by these relievers, they became more pitch-efficient.  With the exception of Brad Ziegler, the number of pitches thrown per game played by the team (not per game the pitcher participated in) dropped for each pitcher to between one sixth and one third of their previous August numbers.  That’s a lot of rest!

Pitches per team game though Sept 10
	Aug Pit/G	Sep Pit/G
Brad Ziegler	5.73	4.00
Craig Kimbrel	6.87	1.25
Fernando Abad	6.27	1.88
Heath Hembree	1.77	0.63
Junichi Tazawa	6.47	1.88
Matt Barnes	7.13	2.25
Robbie Ross	6.47	1.13

The performances got better, too.  Per batter faced, the frequency of undesirable results went down, and the frequency of desirable results went up:

Results per batter faced by relievers
	H	BB	SO	HR
August	22.1%	11.2%	24.8%	2.7%
Sept (thru 9/10)	18.6%	3.4%	33.9%	0.0%

Most importantly, the relievers’ overall earned run average went from poor to perfect:

Relievers’ ERA
	ERA
August	4.70
Sept (thru 9/10)	0.00

Obviously, Sunday’s game threw off these low usage numbers. But that wasn’t such a bad thing, when you realize that none of these “previously overused” relievers had been called on more than twice over the previous 10 days.  They’ll need to pitch occasionally, and pitch in some pressure situations occasionally, to stay sharp.  With Uehara and Kelly back and throwing well, the Red Sox bullpen is suddenly looking like a strength.

The one thing remaining that the Red Sox have lacked is late-inning offense, especially in close games.  If they can turn that around, they’ll have all facets of their game working well.  That will make for an easy September, and an easy September will allow them to set themselves up to perform well in the playoffs.

Seems like the last 3 or 4 years there have been a lot of very excellent, very young baseball players in the major leagues.

Seems like, in that time, there has been a lot of talk about all the very excellent young baseball players in the majors, with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper leading the way. But our impressions are sometimes wrong, as analysis of the relevant data can reveal. So, to see if these impressions are right or wrong, I looked at the data.

The data agree, overwhelmingly.

Using Baseball-Reference.com, I looked at the highest-WAR seasons for players 22 and under from the last 40 years. Though rather than using WAR numbers outright, I scaled WAR to 150 games, to adjust for differences in playing time.  Because WAR behaves more like a cumulative statistic, like hits, than a rate statistic, like batting average, this effectively converts it to a rate statistic.  Because rate statistics are untrustworthy over small sample sizes, I only looked at seasons in which the player played in most of the games, so, at least 82 games.

Here are the top 40 such seasons from the last 40 years:

Year	Player	Lg	Tm	Age	G	WAR	WAR/150
2012	Mike Trout	AL	LAA	20	139	10.8	11.7
2015	Bryce Harper	NL	WSN	22	153	9.9	9.7
1996	Alex Rodriguez	AL	SEA	20	146	9.4	9.7
1981	Rickey Henderson	AL	OAK	22	108	6.6	9.2
2013	Mike Trout	AL	LAA	21	157	8.9	8.5
1980	Rickey Henderson	AL	OAK	21	158	8.8	8.4
1998	Alex Rodriguez	AL	SEA	22	161	8.5	7.9
1983	Cal Ripken	AL	BAL	22	162	8.2	7.6
2014	Mike Trout	AL	LAA	22	157	7.9	7.5
2013	Yasiel Puig	NL	LAD	22	104	4.9	7.1
1998	Andruw Jones	NL	ATL	21	159	7.4	7.0
2015	Francisco Lindor	AL	CLE	21	99	4.6	7.0
1991	Ken Griffey	AL	SEA	21	154	7.1	6.9
2010	Jason Heyward	NL	ATL	20	142	6.4	6.8
2003	Hank Blalock	AL	TEX	22	143	6.4	6.7
2012	Giancarlo Stanton	NL	MIA	22	123	5.5	6.7
1982	Tom Brunansky	AL	MIN	21	127	5.6	6.6
2007	Troy Tulowitzki	NL	COL	22	155	6.8	6.6
2015	Manny Machado	AL	BAL	22	162	7.1	6.6
1999	Andruw Jones	NL	ATL	22	162	7.1	6.6
2005	Grady Sizemore	AL	CLE	22	158	6.6	6.3
2015	Carlos Correa	AL	HOU	20	99	4.1	6.2
2015	Mookie Betts	AL	BOS	22	145	6	6.2
2013	Manny Machado	AL	BAL	20	156	6.4	6.2
2001	Albert Pujols	NL	STL	21	161	6.6	6.1
1992	Ken Griffey	AL	SEA	22	142	5.8	6.1
1979	Paul Molitor	AL	MIL	22	140	5.6	6.0
1976	Willie Randolph	AL	NYY	21	125	5	6.0
1981	Tim Raines	NL	MON	21	88	3.5	6.0
1997	Alex Rodriguez	AL	SEA	21	141	5.6	6.0
1978	Robin Yount	AL	MIL	22	127	5	5.9
2008	Evan Longoria	AL	TBR	22	122	4.8	5.9
1987	Barry Bonds	NL	PIT	22	150	5.8	5.8
1977	Chet Lemon	AL	CHW	22	150	5.8	5.8
2002	Austin Kearns	NL	CIN	22	107	4.1	5.7
1978	Jack Clark	NL	SFG	22	156	5.9	5.7
2012	Jason Heyward	NL	ATL	22	158	5.8	5.5
2012	Bryce Harper	NL	WSN	19	139	5.1	5.5
2012	Brett Lawrie	AL	TOR	22	125	4.5	5.4
1979	Lou Whitaker	AL	DET	22	127	4.5	5.3

I then grouped these into 10 groups of 4 years. As it turns out, the period from 2012 to 2015 contains 5 of the top 10, 8 of the top 20, and 14 of the top 40 of these seasons, as shown by these charts. This, when the average group has 1 in the top 10, 2 in the top 20, and 4 in the top 40.

Of course, sometimes a single player produced more than one of these seasons. But these past four years also dominate in terms of the number of different young players on these lists. Here are all the players having top 40 seasons, listed under their 4-year groups, with their overall placements on the list next to their names. I’ve bolded those with top-20 seasons.

1976 – 1979	1980 – 1983	1984 – 1987
Paul Molitor (27)	Rickey Henderson (4, 6)	Barry Bonds (33)
Willie Randolph (28)	Cal Ripken (8)
Robin Yount (31)	Tom Brunansky (17)
Chet Lemon (34)	Tim Raines (29)
Jack Clark (36)
Lou Whitaker (40)

1988 – 1991	1992 – 1995	1996 – 1999
Ken Griffey (13)	Ken Griffey (26)	Alex Rodriguez (3, 7, 30)
		Andruw Jones (11, 20)

2000 – 2003	2004 – 2007	2008 – 2011
Hank Blalock (15)	Troy Tulowitzki (18)	Jason Heyward (14)
Albert Pujols (25)	Grady Sizemore (21)	Evan Longoria (32)
Austin Kearns (35)

2012 – 2015
Mike Trout (1, 5, 9)
Bryce Harper (2, 38)
Yasiel Puig (10)
Francisco Lindor (12)
Giancarlo Stanton (16)
Manny Machado (19, 24)
Carlos Correa (22)
Mookie Betts (23)
Jason Heyward (37)
Brett Lawrie (39)

Again, these past 4 years dominate.

Now that we know for certain that we’re experiencing a very special surge of young talent, the next thing to ask is, why? Has the surge in the amount of free analysis available (on the web and in ESPN in-depth commentary) over the last decade or so allowed parents to self-coach their youngsters more effectively? And is this finally coming to fruition? Or is this just a fluke? Is it a Cuban invasion? Or something else?

I’m a little frustrated with this article. I don’t think it gets me any closer to knowing how much of a shot Xander Bogaerts has at 2015 American League batting title. It just says, “it will be difficult”.

So I did some projections, to see what the numbers say. Of course, things have changed a bit since this article was published – the gap is now just 12 points instead of 18. There are 11 games left on the Tigers’ schedule, and 12 games left on the Red Sox’. I did two sets of projections. One assumes each player plays in all his team’s remaining games. The other assumes each player sits out two games.

In each case, I used the numbers of at bats and hits of each player in his last 8, 9, 10, etc. games, up to his last 20 games, as the basis for projecting his number of at bats and hits to come in his remaining games. I scaled these samples to the number of remaining games, added them to the current season totals, and calculated batting averages. So that made for 13 separate projections in each case.  The results:

Bogaerts projected 2015 AVG
# of recent games used	If playing all games	If sitting two games
20	0.330	0.329
19	0.329	0.329
18	0.330	0.329
17	0.329	0.328
16	0.328	0.327
15	0.327	0.327
14	0.328	0.327
13	0.328	0.328
12	0.330	0.329
11	0.332	0.331
10	0.331	0.330
9	0.329	0.328
8	0.330	0.329

Cabrera projected 2015 AVG
# of recent games used	If playing all games	If sitting two games
20	0.328	0.329
19	0.327	0.328
18	0.326	0.328
17	0.324	0.326
16	0.324	0.326
15	0.325	0.327
14	0.326	0.328
13	0.328	0.329
12	0.326	0.328
11	0.324	0.326
10	0.325	0.327
9	0.327	0.329
8	0.331	0.332

In both cases, because Bogaerts is hitting well right now and Cabrera is hitting poorly, the projections show that Bogaerts will probably surpass Cabrera and win the batting title. The charts pictured below show the lowest, highest, and median projections among the 13 projections produced for each case.

If playing all remaining games
	Bogaerts	Cabrera
Low	0.327	0.324
Median	0.329	0.326
High	0.332	0.331

If sitting out two games
	Bogaerts	Cabrera
Low	0.327	0.326
Median	0.329	0.328
High	0.331	0.332

If both players hit at their current paces the rest of the way, Xander Bogaerts will surpass Miguel Cabrera for the 2015 AL batting title.

Over their last four games, the Boston Red Sox have posted scores of 15, 22, 8, and 2.  Had it not been for a late rally last night, they would have finished the last of these games with just one run instead of two, and this would have made for what must be an uncommon if not unprecedented oddity.  They’d have had four consecutive different scores, each one exactly 7 runs apart from the closest of the other scores.

What they did accomplish is probably also quite rare: four consecutive games in which no two scores are within 6 runs of each other. To see if any other team has ever accomplished this feat, I might look through Baseball-Reference.com’s play index for games with 18 runs scored or more and then look through game logs to see the scores of the adjacent games, but with over 300 results to look through, that’s more work than I can finish on my lunch break.  So I leave it to you, baseball community:  can you find any team that has done this before?

As the season opened I reported on Jon Lester’s potential to break the record for most hitless at bats to start a career this season, now that he’s batting regularly as a National League pitcher.  Later, I reported on his breaking that record.  Now, at last, there is closure.  On Monday Jon Lester got his first career hit, and it was off former teammate John Lackey (literally – it ricocheted off Lackey).  He tallied 30 AB and 30 plate appearances this season before getting that hit, adding to his prior career totals of 43 PA and 36 AB without a hit.

Here is the new top 10 list:

Name	Team(s)	Pos	PA	AB	First hitless game	Last hitless game	Hitless Games	RBI	SO	BB	HBP	SH	SF
Jon Lester	BOS-OAK	P	73	66	6/16/2006	7/1/2015	30	1	37	1	0	5	1
Joey Hamilton	SDP	P	66	57	5/24/1994	6/3/1995	24	1	34	2	0	6	1
Ron Herbel	SFG	P	63	55	5/6/1964	5/11/1965	27	0	36	2	0	6	0
Marv Breuer	NYY	P	57 to 60	47 to 49	4/27/1940	9/4/1940	20	1	22 or 23	4 or 5	0	6
Luke Walker	PIT	P	56	48	4/18/1966	4/18/1970	27	2	29	2	0	6	0
Don Carman	PHI	P	53	48	9/13/1984	5/11/1987	28	0	21	0	0	5	0
Fred Gladding	DET-HOU	P	49	47	7/1/1961	7/5/1969	40	0	27	0	0	2	0
Chris Short	PHI	P	45	44	4/19/1959	6/24/1961	26	0	19	0	0	1	0
Randy Tate	NYM	P	47	41	4/14/1975	9/18/1975	23	0	22	1	0	5	0
Pat Jarvis	ATL	P	45	41	8/13/1966	6/12/1967	18	1	24	2	0	2	0

Congratulations, Jon. You’ve hit some balls pretty hard to this point in your career, and streak records like this one always involve some luck, either bad or good. Now forget about hitting, because you’ve got more important concerns.

Mookie Betts is closing in on a Red Sox team record.  Or at least he should be.  The record would be for consecutive multi hit games, and Mookie should now have 7 of these in a row, two shy of the team record of 9.  However on June 17 in Atlanta, Mookie was called out on a bunt hit in the second inning that replays clearly show was an unmistakably bad call.  The Red Sox had blown their challenge in the first inning, however, so the call stood, despite manager John Farrell’s pleadings to the umpire to review the call.  The play went as a sacrifice, so it didn’t cost him an at bat; Betts would finish the game with one official hit.  Officially, his multihit streak now stands at 4 instead of 7 because of this. Here are his official stats over these 7 games:

Name	Dates	Year	Games	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SO	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	6/15-6/21	2015	7	31	8	18	3	2	2	7	1	1	0.581	0.594	1.000	1.594

Where would he be on the Red Sox all time list had this call been corrected?  The chart below shows all Red Sox multiple-hit game streaks of 7 or more since 1914, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.  Betts’ numbers as they would have been are added in here.  (Though there are likely a few more from before 1914 that should be added to this list, we know none of those missing streaks exceed 9 games, thanks to this SABR article.)

Name	Dates	Year	Games	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SO	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	5/20-5/29	2007	9	40	11	19	8	0	3	8	6	2	0.475	0.500	0.900	1.400
Jim Rice	5/1-5/9	1978	9	35	11	20	3	2	5	17	3	2	0.571	0.590	1.200	1.790
Roy Johnson	6/17-6/23	1934	9	39	11	22	7	0	0	11	0	2	0.564	0.585	0.744	1.329
Ted Williams	4/28-5/6	1940	8	34	12	18	5	2	1	11	1	3	0.529	0.568	0.882	1.450
Dale Alexander	6/19-6/25	1933	8	36	11	18	3	1	1	6	4	2	0.500	0.526	0.722	1.249
Dick Hoblitzell	8/3-8/19	1914	8	26	4	17	3	0	0	5	4	2	0.654	0.679	0.769	1.448
Mookie Betts	6/15-6/21	2015	7	32	8	19	3	2	2	7	1	1	0.594	0.606	1.000	1.606
Adrian Gonzalez	7/24-7/31	2011	7	32	7	17	2	0	1	10	3	2	0.531	0.556	0.688	1.243
Johnny Damon	7/3-7/10	2004	7	38	12	22	1	0	3	8	1	0	0.579	0.579	0.842	1.421
Mo Vaughn	5/15-5/22	1996	7	33	8	15	1	0	5	11	7	3	0.455	0.500	0.939	1.439
Billy Hatcher	5/22-5/29	1993	7	29	7	16	1	1	2	5	3	1	0.552	0.548	0.862	1.410
Marty Barrett	9/7-9/14	1987	7	28	5	16	2	0	1	3	0	1	0.571	0.567	0.750	1.317
Fred Lynn	8/10-8/17	1979	7	26	11	15	2	0	6	13	0	3	0.577	0.621	1.346	1.967
Carl Yastrzemski	6/22-6/27	1965	7	29	6	16	6	0	2	6	3	4	0.552	0.606	0.966	1.572
Billy Goodman	9/6-9/12	1954	7	33	5	14	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.424	0.441	0.424	0.865
Ted Williams	6/21-6/27	1951	7	28	11	16	5	1	0	10	0	5	0.571	0.636	0.821	1.458
Vern Stephens	5/2-5/7	1950	7	30	8	14	2	0	2	7	1	2	0.467	0.500	0.733	1.233
Johnny Pesky	9/5-9/12	1942	7	35	10	18	5	1	0	6	1	2	0.514	0.541	0.714	1.255
Doc Cramer	8/26-8/31	1939	7	32	6	16	1	0	0	3	1	1	0.500	0.515	0.531	1.046
Doc Cramer	6/16-6/24	1939	7	33	10	15	0	2	0	2	0	1	0.455	0.471	0.576	1.046
Ben Chapman	9/2-9/6	1938	7	27	8	17	1	1	1	7	2	6	0.630	0.697	0.852	1.549
Earl Webb	9/14-9/18	1931	7	29	6	15	6	0	1	8	1	1	0.517	0.533	0.828	1.361
Buddy Myer	6/27-7/1	1928	7	30	7	17	4	1	1	5	1	2	0.567	0.594	0.867	1.460
Del Pratt	7/4-7/10	1922	7	32	2	14	1	1	1	6	0	0	0.438	0.438	0.625	1.063
Larry Gardner	8/8-8/16	1916	7	29	4	16	1	1	0	1	1	5	0.552	0.618	0.655	1.273

Tied for 7th, and possibly still counting.

Especially interesting are his overall offensive totals during this run.  Only Jim Rice in 1978 (his best offensive year) and Fred Lynn in 1979 have higher OPS’s.  And this brings a note of consolation.  The best streaks on this list, going by OPS, came from players in the primes of their careers.  Mookie, on the other hand, is just starting his career.  In other words, he’s likely to get a few more shots at topping this list in the years to come.

His official streak of 4 is still going, and based on the above, Mookie Betts is about as hot a hitter right now as any Red Sox player has ever been.  I’ll be watching tonight.

This year we will find out whether Jon Lester will set a new standard for all players. Not in greatness, though, but in futility. And not in pitching, but in hitting.

Jon Lester now has more plate appearances than any active player without a career hit. His 43 plate appearances dwarf the next longest streak of 28, held by Odrisamer Despaigne in his one season thus far pitching for the San Diego Padres. He is also tied for the longest ever stretch of seasons with a plate appearance without a career hit, a record shared with Justin Verlander of the Tigers. Both went hitless in their first 8 seasons of play in which they had a plate appearance. With Verlander getting his first career hits last season though, the record could become Lester’s alone in 2015. But now that he has switched from the American League to the National League by signing with the Cubs, and given how deep into games he pitches, he’ll get a few plate appearances every time he pitches, and a lot more plate appearances on the season than he’s ever had before. The consequence being that he is almost certainly going to end both strings in this coming 2015 season.

It’s not just the increased number of chances, as numerous as they will be (he is bound to match his previous career total of 43 plate appearances by July, and potentially double that total by the end of the season, tripling his career total in the process). He should also have a better chance of getting a hit each time he comes to the plate, due to increased practice time; even if he didn’t put any added emphasis on hitting in preparation for this coming year to avoid having his bat become a much bigger liability to his team, he’ll get more practice in the games themselves, and with greater frequency.

So it seems a good assumption that he won’t set a new mark for seasons at the start of a career with a plate appearance but no hits. But perhaps he could set the mark for the longest string of hitless plate appearance to begin a career. This speculation brought me to the questions, just what is that mark, and how much longer will Lester’s hitless streak have to continue to for him to break it? The answer has not been so easy to come by.

The answers for complete careers without a hit are easier to find. Baseball-reference.com’s Play Index provides that quite easily. If Lester’s career ended today, here is where he’d place on that all-time list:

Name	Team(s)	Pos	PA	AB	Hitless Games	SO	BB	HBP	SH	SF
Randy Tate	NYM	P	47	41	23	22	1	0	5	0
Bo McLaughlin	HOU-ATL	P	45	37	25	20	3	0	5	0
Tony McKnight	HOU-PIT	P	44	37	20	16	2	0	5	0
Jon Lester	BOS-OAK	P	43	36	16	22	1	0	5	1
Daryl Patterson	DET-OAK-STL-PIT	P	37	35	29	23	2	0	0	0
Armando Galarraga	DET-ARI-HOU	P	36	31	18	16	3	0	2	0
Charley Stanceu	NYY-PHI	P	34	31	18	16	2	0	1	0
Ted Davidson	CIN-ATL	P	34	31	22	19	1	0	2	0

Note that this only counts games from the last 101 years (beginning with 1914).

He’s squarely in fourth place, and not far off the lead. Were Lester to retire after two more games played, he just may well top this list. But that’s not likely to happen.

Getting the list of longest hitless stretches to begin a career proved to be more difficult. I got quite far by making liberal use of the “First to nth seasons” fields in Baseball-reference.com’s Play Index, but that only provided totals for hitless full seasons. To determine exactly how long a given player’s career-opening hitless streak went, I had to add to their prior career total how far into the next season their first career hit came. This let some players slip through the cracks, when their first career hit came deep into a season with a lot of plate appearances in it. I later discovered their streak finder for games, and was able to get a list of hitless games at the start of a career, and sort by number of at bats. This has made things much easier. Adjustments from this list have always proven to be small, and it gives me confidence that I now have a complete list – at least back to 1914.

Here is the list of the longest few hitless stretches to start a career, ordered by number of plate appearances (and please note that strikeout totals in a few cases may be low by 1 or 2 strikeouts):

Name	Team(s)	Pos	PA	AB	First hitless game	Last hitless game	Hitless Games	RBI	SO	BB	HBP	SH	SF
Joey Hamilton	SDP	P	66	57	5/24/1994	6/3/1995	24	1	34	2	0	6	1
Ron Herbel	SFG	P	63	55	5/6/1964	5/11/1965	27	0	36	2	0	6	0
Marv Breuer	NYY	P	57 to 60	47 to 49	4/27/1940	9/4/1940	20	1	22 or 23	4 or 5	0	6
Luke Walker	PIT	P	56	48	4/18/1966	4/18/1970	27	2	29	2	0	6	0
Don Carman	PHI	P	53	48	9/13/1984	5/11/1987	28	0	21	0	0	5	0
Steve Stone	SFG	P	50	40	4/8/1971	5/16/1972	24	2	22	6	0	4	0
Fred Gladding	DET-HOU	P	49	47	7/1/1961	7/5/1969	40	0	27	0	0	2	0
Randy Tate	NYM	P	47	41	4/14/1975	9/18/1975	23	0	22	1	0	5	0
Roberto Hernandez	CLE-TBR-PHI	P	47	40	6/12/2007	6/18/2014	22	0	21	0	0	7	0
Denny Neagle	PIT	P	47	40	4/21/1992	5/16/1994	25	0	11	0	0	7	0
Dick Drago	KCR	P	47	36	4/11/1969	8/30/1969	21	1	17	2	0	9	0
Darryl Kile	HOU	P	46	38	4/24/1991	4/8/1992	21	1	23	4	0	4	0
Curt Raydon	PIT	P	46	36	5/7/1958	9/3/1958	20	1	24	6	0	3	0
Chris Short	PHI	P	45	44	4/19/1959	6/24/1961	26	0	19	0	0	1	0
Pat Jarvis	ATL	P	45	41	8/13/1966	6/12/1967	18	1	24	2	0	2	0
Bo McLaughlin	HOU-ATL	P	45	37	7/20/1976	7/29/1979	25	0	20	3	0	5	0
Brandon McCarthy	CHW-TEX-ARI	P	44	39	5/22/2005	9/7/2013	19	0	14	2	0	3	0
Tony McKnight	HOU-PIT	P	44	37	8/10/2000	10/6/2001	20	0	16	2	0	5	0
Miguel Batista	CHC-MON	P	43	41	8/11/1997	9/25/1998	24	0	26	0	0	2	0
Alex Wood	ATL	P	43	38	6/18/2013	7/6/2014	21	0	25	2	0	3	0
Jon Lester	BOS-OAK	P	43	36	6/16/2006	8/17/2014	16	1	22	1	0	5	1
Tom Gorzelanny	PIT	P	43	36	9/20/2005	5/9/2007	19	1	21	2	1	4	0
Mike Cuellar	CIN-STL-HOU	P	42	40	4/18/1959	4/25/1966	21	0	20	1	0	1	0
Greg Hibbard	CHC	P	42	37	4/7/1993	8/3/1993	19	0	9	2	0	3	0
Mark Lemongello	HOU	P	41	38	9/14/1976	7/4/1977	20	0	15	1	0	2	0
Ted Power	LAD-CIN	P	41	33	9/14/1981	8/1/1986	32	0	27	3	0	5	0
Brian Moehler	DET-CIN-HOU-FLA	P	40	36	6/15/1997	5/1/2005	21	0	14	3	0	1	0
Claudio Vargas	MON	P	40	35	4/26/2003	4/18/2004	20	0	18	1	0	4	0
Vic Harris	TEX	2B,3B	39	36	7/21/1972	8/3/1972	12	1	10	3	0	0	0
Manny Sarmiento	CIN-PIT	P	39	34	7/30/1976	5/10/1982	30	0	10	1	1	3	0
Hideo Nomo	LAD	P	39	35	5/2/1995	7/5/1995	13	0	19	0	0	4	0
Wilcy Moore	NYY	P	38 or 39	31 or 32	4/14/1927	7/4/1927	16	1	16	3	0	4	0

Though it’s probably fairer to sort by at bats instead of by plate appearances. Here’s that list:

Name	Team(s)	Pos	PA	AB	First hitless game	Last hitless game	Hitless Games	RBI	SO	BB	HBP	SH	SF
Joey Hamilton	SDP	P	66	57	5/24/1994	6/3/1995	24	1	34	2	0	6	1
Ron Herbel	SFG	P	63	55	5/6/1964	5/11/1965	27	0	36	2	0	6	0
Marv Breuer	NYY	P	57 to 60	47 to 49	4/27/1940	9/4/1940	20	1	22 or 23	4 or 5	0	6
Luke Walker	PIT	P	56	48	4/18/1966	4/18/1970	27	2	29	2	0	6	0
Don Carman	PHI	P	53	48	9/13/1984	5/11/1987	28	0	21	0	0	5	0
Fred Gladding	DET-HOU	P	49	47	7/1/1961	7/5/1969	40	0	27	0	0	2	0
Chris Short	PHI	P	45	44	4/19/1959	6/24/1961	26	0	19	0	0	1	0
Randy Tate	NYM	P	47	41	4/14/1975	9/18/1975	23	0	22	1	0	5	0
Pat Jarvis	ATL	P	45	41	8/13/1966	6/12/1967	18	1	24	2	0	2	0
Miguel Batista	CHC-MON	P	43	41	8/11/1997	9/25/1998	24	0	26	0	0	2	0
Steve Stone	SFG	P	50	40	4/8/1971	5/16/1972	24	2	22	6	0	4	0
Roberto Hernandez	CLE-TBR-PHI	P	47	40	6/12/2007	6/18/2014	22	0	21	0	0	7	0
Denny Neagle	PIT	P	47	40	4/21/1992	5/16/1994	25	0	11	0	0	7	0
Mike Cuellar	CIN-STL-HOU	P	42	40	4/18/1959	4/25/1966	21	0	20	1	0	1	0
Brandon McCarthy	CHW-TEX-ARI	P	44	39	5/22/2005	9/7/2013	19	0	14	2	0	3	0
Darryl Kile	HOU	P	46	38	4/24/1991	4/8/1992	21	1	23	4	0	4	0
Alex Wood	ATL	P	43	38	6/18/2013	7/6/2014	21	0	25	2	0	3	0
Mark Lemongello	HOU	P	41	38	9/14/1976	7/4/1977	20	0	15	1	0	2	0
Bo McLaughlin	HOU-ATL	P	45	37	7/20/1976	7/29/1979	25	0	20	3	0	5	0
Tony McKnight	HOU-PIT	P	44	37	8/10/2000	10/6/2001	20	0	16	2	0	5	0
Greg Hibbard	CHC	P	42	37	4/7/1993	8/3/1993	19	0	9	2	0	3	0
Dick Drago	KCR	P	47	36	4/11/1969	8/30/1969	21	1	17	2	0	9	0
Curt Raydon	PIT	P	46	36	5/7/1958	9/3/1958	20	1	24	6	0	3	0
Jon Lester	BOS-OAK	P	43	36	6/16/2006	8/17/2014	16	1	22	1	0	5	1
Tom Gorzelanny	PIT	P	43	36	9/20/2005	5/9/2007	19	1	21	2	1	4	0
Brian Moehler	DET-CIN-HOU-FLA	P	40	36	6/15/1997	5/1/2005	21	0	14	3	0	1	0
Vic Harris	TEX	2B,3B	39	36	7/21/1972	8/3/1972	12	1	10	3	0	0	0
Wes Stock	BAL	P	38	36	4/23/1959	6/13/1964	29	0	26	2	0	0	0
Ramon Ortiz	ANA-CIN	P	38	36	6/9/2001	6/1/2005	15	0	13	1	0	1	0
Billy McCool	CIN	P	37	36	5/8/1964	8/17/1965	29	0	20	0	0	1	0

That puts Lester in a tie for 19th place overall when going by plate appearances, and tied for 22nd overall when going by at bats. However, after his first two starts of the season, he could very likely reach 6th and 8th on these lists respectively. Barring injury, we should know no later than June whether he takes the overall record of 66 PA and 57 AB away from Joey Hamilton.

Some interesting observations I made along the way in tabulating these lists:

As one might expect, all the top positions on these lists are held by pitchers. Vic Harris leads position players with 39 PA and 36 AB.

My list goes out to about the top 45 or so players. Of these, most got a single for their first hit, but about 10% got doubles. The only one to break through with a home run was Stephen Vogt, a catcher and outfielder for the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A’s who did so in 2013.

About 10% got two hits in the game in which they ended their streak. Highest on the list to do so was Marv Breuer, who went 2 for 4 with a walk and double and scored 2 runs in the game in which he ended his streak. I don’t have game details for his breakthrough game, so I can’t tell if the hits were consecutive. Pat Jarvis, at around 9th place on these lists, did get a hit in the next plate appearance after his first hit, having going 0-for-41 before his first hit.

Most players on these lists struck out more than half the time.

Previously I mentioned that Lester and Verlander were tied for most seasons with a plate appearance without a career hit. It is notable that they are both American League pitchers playing in the era of the designated hitter and also in the era of interleague play. This affords the best chance at such a streak, giving each only a few plate appearances per year; not enough for them to care about their hitting all that much, and of course meaning a “string of bad luck” can go a long way by lasting over several seasons.