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  • Expected Binomial Production
    • A formula connecting on base percentage and run production (EBP)
      • Full derivation of Expected Binomial Production component formulas
      • Derivation of Expected Binomial Production left-on-base fractions
    • The meaning of each part of the EBP formulas
    • Interpreting the EBP plots: The Threshold Effect, The Fixed-Outs Explosion, and other features
    • What the OBP-dependence of established run estimators probably looks like
      • How I mocked up OBP dependence for basic offensive baseball statistics
    • Other things you can do with EBP
  • The Merit Method
    • The how and the why of awarding wins to pitchers by the merit method
    • Nathan Eovaldi’s 6-game no-decision streak would be a 6-game win streak if wins were awarded in this way
    • Garrett Crochet pitched the best start of the year but didn’t get the win. We can fix that.
    • Flawed rules took Tanner Houck’s win away. We can give it back.
    • Tanner Houck deserves a win for his 5 perfect innings – and here’s a way to give it to him
The Baseballsphere Blog

The Baseballsphere Blog

The (sometimes mathematical) baseball thoughts, analysis, and ideas of Tom McIntyre

Formulas predicting frequency of innings with particular run totals

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