Author: tomisphere

This is exciting

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Man, is this exciting!
This past Sunday morning, the Rockies chances of taking the division were almost nil. If you take the chance of any game going one way or the other to be 50-50, then they were one in 2048.

Now, today, they’re just one in 4.

But it gets better! Today the Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals both lost. The Phillies had the upper hand over the Rockies in the race for the best record in the NL. They were tied, but a tie would go to the Phillies for home field advatage in the playoffs, because the Phillies won more games against the Rockies. Now, if the Rockies win the division the only way they can, by winning the next two games, then they’ll have a better record than the Phillies no matter what.

In fact, they’ll have the best record in the entire National League. They’ve never even had the best record in their division before!

So it’s all in the Rockies’ hands now. Nothing that happens in any other games can determine where they’ll land in the playoffs. Either they win the division and play the Cardinals with home field advantage in that and the next round, or lose the division and play the Phillies without home field advantage in any round.

Then again, lately the Rockies don’t seem to need that home field advantage. Somehow, in this year and in 2007, when the odds are getting to just about, but not quite impossible, impossible is what they do. Somehow, it seems as though they are destined to win tonight and make it a one-game playoff for the division.

But I mustn’t get too confident about that. *They* mustn’t get too confident about that, and they must play it like it’s a playoff game. Because really, isn’t it?

Rockies division hopes now in their own hands

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On Saturday night, the Dodgers reduced their magic number to clinch the division to 1, with 7 games to go for both themselves and the one team that could catch them, the Rockies.

With the Dodgers’ loss last night, their fourth in a row, they gave the Rockies a gift … the Rockies’ division pennant fate is in their own hands. Because all 3 of the Dodgers’ remaining games are against the Rockies. And the Rockies, having won all three games they’ve played since Saturday, have kept that magic number at 1.

The Rockies are lucky to be playing the Dodgers this weekend. Think about this: if they weren’t, then 7 games would have to go the Rockies’ way for them to take the pennant. But because of the schedule, because they’ll be playing the very team they’re trying to catch, only 4 games have to go their way. That’s like the difference between a 1 in 128 chance versus a 1 in 16 chance. One in sixteen are much better odds, 8 times more likely to happen. Plus, I’m sure it’s relieving for the players to not have their fate determined by goings on elsewhere in other parks, needing a team that is out of the playoffs to win 3 straight.

What’s more, two days ago their hold on the wild card was looking very much in doubt, with a white-hot Braves team only 2 games back with 6 games to play. Now they’re four back with four to play, and the magic number in that race has gone from 5 to 1. The Rockies, in their last home game this afternoon at 1:10 pm, have a chance to clinch their playoff spot at home. Last chance, and it took a remarkable week to get to this spot. I hope for their sake, and for their fans’ sake, that they get it.

I was at last night’s game. This is fun.

Red Sox could catch the Yankees by this time next week

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Improbable, but not that improbable.

The Red Sox play four in Kansas City. The Yankees play 3 in Anaheim. There couldn’t be much more difference in the strength these opponents. If the Red Sox seep KC, and the Yankees lose 2 to the Angels, that moves the Red Sox to 2 and a half games behind the Yankees. Then a sweep of the Yankees in New York next weekend would put the Red Sox on top.

That last part, of course, is the rather improbably part. Still, even coming a little short of that, the Red Sox could end the week withing striking distance of the division title, with one week to go in the season.

Rockies could still get the division

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The Colorado Rockies still have a chance to get home field advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chances are slim, though. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Rockies each play 9 games before their 3-game series against each other to finish the season. The Rockies will have to gain at least 3 games on the Dodgers over the next 9 games to have a chance to overtake them for the division by sweeping them in the final 3 games. The good news for the Rockies is that those 9 games will be at home for the Rockies, and they’ll be on the road for the Dodgers.
The bad news is that the Dodgers play 7 of those 9 games against the two worst teams in the league, and the other two against San Diego, one of the worst of the rest. The Rockies, on the other hand, have a series next weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. By then, however, the Cardinals will likely have clinched their playoff spot, so hopefully won’t play with quite their full fervor.

What would a six-game gain on the Dodgers look like? Perhaps the Rockies go 7-2 while the Dodgers go 4-5, then a sweep of the Dodgers; or, the Rockies go 8-1, the Dodgers 3-6, then the Rockies take 2 of 3 in LA.

Not likely, but possible. And if they do this, they will likely also surpass the other division leaders and end up with the best record in the whole league, thus having home field advantage through the playoffs.

Lugo the loser

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Julio Lugo rejoined the Red Sox at the start of their current road trip, which they started with a 10-game winning streak. The Red Sox are 1 and 4 in games Lugo has played on this road trip, and are 3 and 0 in games in which Lugo hasn’t played.

Not to say it’s all his fault, but …

You know how with some players, it seems they’re always doing something to help you win? With Lugo it seems he’s always doing something to help you lose. And by something, I mean critical fielding errors.

Congratulations, Tampa Bay Rays

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Congratulations, Tampa Bay Rays.

For as long as I’ve known you, you’ve been the whipping boys of the AL East.  When my team (the Boston Red Sox) went in to play you, I felt a mixture of feelings – we want to sweep, because the Yankees are sweeping you and we want to keep up with them; but to make what had to be a miserable feeling for you even worse had me pitying you.

You did the best thing possible to remedy this; you got good, and you believed in yourselves.  Such a turnaround, though!  It is not an accident that you are where you are now.  You got there through your own talent, determination, and effort.

World Series prediction:  Rays in 5.

MOMENTUM SHIFT

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A lot of people are comparing the Red Sox comeback in Game 5 of this year’s ALCS with their turnaround of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees, to whom they were down 3 games to 0, having been blown out in Game 3 allowing 19 runs.  There are a lot of similarities.

The late ray of hope

2004:  Kevin Millar gets a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 9th of Game 4 against the Yankees, needing one run to tie with Mariano Rivera, the best closer in playoff history, on the mound.  Dave Roberts, the league’s best base stealer, is put in to run for him.

2008:  With two on and two out in the 7th, the Red Sox down 7-0 and looking like they’ll be blown out for the third game in a row and lose the ALCS, Dustin Pedroia knocks in a run with an opposite-field single, and the Red Sox have two on with Big Papi coming up.

Momentum shift

2004:  Even though the pitcher, the catcher, and everybody else knew he was going to try to steal, Dave Roberts successfully steals second base, and Fenway Park goes nuts.

2008:  Even though he’d been slumping horribly in the playoffs, Big Papi returns to form, hitting a good inside pitch into the right field stands, cutting the lead to 7-4, and Fenway Park goes nuts.

These plays were the pivot points.  There was still work to do, but the mentality of the fans changed after this one from one of hope but fear to one of expectation of good things to come.

A sense of destiny

2004:  Bill Mueller singles in Dave Roberts, tying the game in the ninth against the great Mariano Rivera.

2008:  Coco Crisp wins a 10-pitch battle to single in the tying run in the bottom of the eighth, tying the game 7-7, as he also runs into the final out of the inning.

After these plays, Red Sox fans got the feeling that they were destined to win this game, and probably more after.

Going home happy, with the ball rolling

2004:  Big Papi hits a walkoff home run in extra innings, and the Red Sox win the game, and the next one, and the next one, and with a big head of steam built, blow out the Yankees 10-3 in the final Game 7.

2008:  J.D. Drew knocks a ground-rule double over the Rays’ right fielder’s head, knocking in Kevin Youkilis in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, and the Red Sox win the game, and the next one, and … ???

Look for a blowout in Game 7 tonight.  Red Sox by at least 6.

The Red Sox will win big

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In the 2004 and 2007 deciding games of the ALCS, the Red Sox, having changed the momentum of their series a few games before, won big.  In 2004 against the Yankees, after winning several close games, they won Game 7 10-3.  In 2007, they won Game 7 against the Indians 11-2.

I expect the Red Sox will win tonight by at least 6 runs, the momentum still swinging in their direction.