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  • Expected Binomial Production
    • A formula connecting on base percentage and run production (EBP)
      • Full derivation of Expected Binomial Production component formulas
      • Derivation of Expected Binomial Production left-on-base fractions
    • The meaning of each part of the EBP formulas
    • Interpreting the EBP plots: The Threshold Effect, The Fixed-Outs Explosion, and other features
    • What the OBP-dependence of established run estimators probably looks like
      • How I mocked up OBP dependence for basic offensive baseball statistics
    • Other things you can do with EBP
  • The Merit Method
    • The how and the why of awarding wins to pitchers by the merit method
    • Nathan Eovaldi’s 6-game no-decision streak would be a 6-game win streak if wins were awarded in this way
    • Garrett Crochet pitched the best start of the year but didn’t get the win. We can fix that.
    • Flawed rules took Tanner Houck’s win away. We can give it back.
    • Tanner Houck deserves a win for his 5 perfect innings – and here’s a way to give it to him
The Baseballsphere Blog

The Baseballsphere Blog

The (sometimes mathematical) baseball thoughts, analysis, and ideas of Tom McIntyre

A comparison of run estimators and Expected Binomial Production

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