I hated the trade of Willson Contreras to my team, the Boston Red Sox, for RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Yhoiker Fajardo and RHP Blake Aita. The Red Sox got a good player who doesn’t improve the team, while giving a player who was a personal favorite.
Hunter Dobbins was my favorite pitcher on the Sox, not for how he pitched, but for the things he said. For the competitive fire. For the anti-Yankees fervor. He seemed promising as a #5 starter.
When I say that Willson Contreras doesn’t improve the Red Sox, that hinges on something that I get the feeling that nobody agrees with me on: that Romy Gonzalez has evolved into one of the top bats on the team, whose elite hard-hit rate could turn him into one of the top bats in the game if he could learn to elevate the ball a bit (he hits it into the ground too much). If you go by multi-year track record, people are right about Gonzalez and Contreras; but if you go just by 2025, as I do in my comments to follow, they’ve got Romy all wrong.
I’ve stated elsewhere, when you analyze it carefully, you see that Contreras is no better than Romy Gonzalez at first base. He’s a good player that the Red Sox didn’t need.
A key part of that statement is “at first base”. Romy’s best position defensively has always been first base, where he rates as average by all the different rating systems (he’s a below average fielder everywhere else). Contreras is effectively the same as Romy at 1B in Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved, and Deserved Runs prevented. Only Statcast’s Fielding Run Value has him significantly higher, where he is a substantially above-average 4.
At the plate? They’re very similar in wOBA, Expected wOBA, and OBP. Contreras gets more walks and home runs, but not a ton more. Romy gets more singles, doubles, triples, and strikes out slightly less. They both chase too much.
Playing in Fenway, Contreras will probably see his doubles numbers catch up to Romy’s, but their home run numbers may get closer too. But Romy is just a slight adjustment away from unlocking a ton more power, as I mentioned above, with his elite hard-hit rate, but tendency to hit the ball into the ground.
Baserunning? Romy is clearly the better one here.
Positional versatility? Slight advantage to Contreras because it’s great to have an emergency backup catcher, but Romy is strong in this category too.
I figured, put Romy at first until Casas is ready, then work things out from there. Get one other infielder, preferably a third baseman, or a Ketel Marte. That would have been best. Anthony, Gonzalez, and Casas could all be giving the Red Sox power in spades if they can all be healthy.
Now instead, Romy plays second base where he’s worse defensively (I hope he gets better), and Casas is kind of blocked. Contreras may be a power hitter, but the Red Sox may not end up with any more power production for his acquisition.
The Baseballsphere Blog 